MODEL VERDICT
MidWestOne Financial Group, Inc. (MOFG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $49.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $49.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $49.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $49.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $49.31 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $41.19 | -16.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $41.72 | -15.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $40.37 | -18.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $48.06 | -2.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.93 | -25.1% | 100% | 71 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.66 | 11.19 | 7.41 | 59.76 | 20.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.11 | 15.69 | 7.23 | 56.42 | 17.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.76 | 12.36 | 7.11 | 42.05 | 12.71 |
| P/FCF | 14.58 | 8.16 | 4.70 | 56.14 | 18.47 |
| P/FFO | 13.60 | 9.67 | 7.02 | 35.31 | 10.90 |
| P/TBV | 1.14 | 1.10 | 0.93 | 1.43 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 15.66 | 10.59 | 7.30 | 43.61 | 13.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.91 | 0.89 | 0.77 | 1.06 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.10 | 2.04 | 1.58 | 2.52 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates MOFG's fair value at $36.93 vs the current price of $49.31, implying -25.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.41 (P10) to $42.06 (P90), with a median of $37.70.
MOFG's current P/E of -13.9x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -189.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.7x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover MOFG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $31.25 (range: $31.00 — $31.50), implying -36.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MOFG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.