MODEL VERDICT
Cable One, Inc. (CABO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $75.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $103.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $107.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $95.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $91.83 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $587.41 | +683.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 2 industry peers | $87.74 | +17.0% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $93.99 | +25.3% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $402.82 | +437.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $1158.10 | +1443.9% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $11.67 | -84.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $540.11 | +620.0% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 50.67 | 41.02 | 14.62 | 140.36 | 45.91 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.51 | 24.45 | 11.76 | 33.29 | 10.40 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.37 | 9.11 | 4.66 | 20.19 | 6.66 |
| P/FCF | 11.99 | 12.63 | 2.29 | 20.42 | 7.49 |
| P/FFO | 14.31 | 17.86 | 5.71 | 23.20 | 7.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.47 | 2.59 | 0.44 | 10.15 | 3.92 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.38 | 2.63 | 0.42 | 9.98 | 3.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CABO's fair value at $540.11 vs the current price of $75.01, implying +620.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $540.11 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $313.37 (P10) to $659.81 (P90), with a median of $476.67.
CABO's current P/E of -1.2x compares to the industry median of 10.2x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -111.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 50.7x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover CABO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $80.00 (range: $80.00 — $80.00), implying +6.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CABO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.