MODEL VERDICT
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $31.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $29.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $30.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $29.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $28.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $22.88 | -26.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $47.42 | +52.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $51.91 | +67.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $3.94 | -87.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $26.79 | -13.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $196.57 | +532.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $113.09 | +263.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $47.32 | +52.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $55.56 | +78.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $47.75 | +53.6% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $24 | $28 | $32 | $36 | $41 |
| Conservative (7%) | $24 | $29 | $33 | $37 | $42 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $25 | $29 | $34 | $39 | $43 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $26 | $30 | $35 | $40 | $44 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.31 | 16.65 | 12.01 | 28.89 | 6.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.58 | 23.28 | 10.88 | 52.53 | 14.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.92 | 11.81 | 8.17 | 17.89 | 3.33 |
| P/FCF | 17.03 | 15.08 | 9.47 | 29.00 | 6.89 |
| P/FFO | 9.65 | 8.13 | 3.15 | 21.11 | 5.60 |
| P/TBV | 4.48 | 4.54 | 1.30 | 8.02 | 2.18 |
| P/AFFO | 19.92 | 19.02 | 10.00 | 31.79 | 7.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.29 | 4.31 | 1.24 | 7.52 | 2.10 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.16 | 1.25 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates CBRL's fair value at $47.75 vs the current price of $31.09, implying +53.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $47.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.79 (P10) to $51.72 (P90), with a median of $45.11.
CBRL's current P/E of 15.1x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -34.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.3x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
31 analysts cover CBRL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $30.60 (range: $25.00 — $45.00), implying -1.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (20), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CBRL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.