MODEL VERDICT
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $60.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $61.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $62.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $61.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $59.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $64.73 | +7.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $21.68 | -64.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $71.30 | +18.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $60.74 | +0.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $36.10 | -40.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $21.73 | -63.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $48.46 | -19.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $53.55 | -11.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $71.09 | +18.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $71.46 | +18.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $57.48 | -4.5% | 100% | 83 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $51 | $57 | $64 | $70 | $77 |
| Conservative (7%) | $52 | $59 | $65 | $72 | $78 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $54 | $61 | $68 | $74 | $81 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $56 | $63 | $70 | $77 | $84 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.90 | 16.68 | 13.59 | 38.76 | 11.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.38 | 32.62 | 22.89 | 82.33 | 22.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.07 | 18.32 | 14.82 | 25.32 | 3.62 |
| P/FCF | 20.26 | 18.63 | 12.11 | 32.77 | 8.17 |
| P/FFO | 9.81 | 9.24 | 8.04 | 11.80 | 1.58 |
| P/TBV | 19.17 | 13.22 | 6.41 | 39.49 | 11.34 |
| P/AFFO | 31.88 | 22.84 | 12.40 | 71.50 | 21.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.81 | 5.40 | 3.03 | 5.75 | 1.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.48 | 0.82 | 0.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CAKE's fair value at $57.48 vs the current price of $60.20, implying -4.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $57.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $46.50 (P10) to $63.46 (P90), with a median of $54.82.
CAKE's current P/E of 19.6x compares to the industry median of 23.2x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -15.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.9x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
48 analysts cover CAKE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $65.50 (range: $53.00 — $75.00), implying +8.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (27), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CAKE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (0.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7850.0% to approximately $13. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.