MODEL VERDICT
C4 Therapeutics, Inc. (CCCC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 182 industry peers | $3.76 | +111.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 184 industry peers | $3.67 | +106.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.59 | +157.7% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.44 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 5.08 | 1.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.44 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 5.08 | 1.89 |
| P/S Ratio | 21.03 | 13.51 | 7.02 | 42.98 | 15.82 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates CCCC's fair value at $4.59 vs the current price of $1.78, implying +157.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.50 (P10) to $7.23 (P90), with a median of $4.78.
CCCC's current P/E of -1.2x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -105.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover CCCC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.00 (range: $5.00 — $10.00), implying +293.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CCCC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.