MODEL VERDICT
Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $27.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $26.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $24.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $27.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $32.17 | Pending | -14.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $11.14 | -59.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $9.76 | -64.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $26.62 | -2.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $24.21 | -11.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $4.72 | -82.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $23.69 | -13.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $47.87 | +74.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $39.46 | +43.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $26.62 | -2.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $24.29 | -11.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $322.70 | +1076.9% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $25 | $26 | $28 | $30 | $32 |
| Conservative (7%) | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $26 | $28 | $30 | $32 | $34 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $27 | $29 | $31 | $33 | $35 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 201.26 | 257.97 | 36.80 | 309.00 | 144.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 192.38 | 195.60 | 91.22 | 290.31 | 99.59 |
| EV/EBITDA | 98.43 | 114.41 | 63.13 | 117.75 | 30.62 |
| P/FCF | 4253.09 | 132.98 | 29.77 | 18194.24 | 7887.97 |
| P/FFO | 71.93 | 68.39 | 28.45 | 118.96 | 45.36 |
| P/TBV | 471.89 | 98.14 | 21.68 | 1669.59 | 799.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 460.94 | 77.09 | 20.01 | 1669.59 | 806.41 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.33 | 1.98 | 0.92 | 5.12 | 1.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHWY's fair value at $322.70 vs the current price of $27.42, implying +1076.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $322.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.03 (P10) to $1106.44 (P90), with a median of $349.16.
CHWY's current P/E of 30.1x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +3.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 201.3x over 3 years. Signal: Fair Value.
37 analysts cover CHWY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $46.11 (range: $28.00 — $52.00), implying +68.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (31), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CHWY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.