MODEL VERDICT
Citizens, Inc. (CIA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $5.98 | CURRENT | -9.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 16 industry peers | $3.46 | -42.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 19 industry peers | $6.42 | +7.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 18 analyst estimates | $2.47 | -58.7% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $3.46 | -42.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 16 bank peers | $0.07 | -98.8% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 18 industry peers | $4.52 | -24.4% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 17 industry peers | $2.55 | -57.4% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.92 | -34.4% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (7%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $8 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 40.55 | 10.01 | 3.12 | 165.62 | 63.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.32 | 9.63 | 0.56 | 96.02 | 36.85 |
| P/FCF | 5.22 | 5.82 | 1.91 | 6.80 | 1.71 |
| P/FFO | 223.85 | 5.33 | 3.63 | 1093.12 | 485.95 |
| P/TBV | 27.63 | 1.12 | 0.84 | 159.48 | 64.60 |
| P/AFFO | 6.72 | 4.76 | 3.68 | 13.67 | 4.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.10 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 2.01 | 0.43 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.00 | 1.07 | 0.47 | 1.55 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates CIA's fair value at $3.92 vs the current price of $5.98, implying -34.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.39 (P10) to $4.73 (P90), with a median of $4.06.
CIA's current P/E of 20.6x compares to the industry median of 11.9x (16 peers in the group). This represents a +72.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for CIA.
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CIA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.