MODEL VERDICT
CONMED Corporation (CNMD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $36.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $38.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $39.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $39.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $36.74 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $80.61 | +119.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $97.61 | +165.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $45.04 | +22.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $111.19 | +202.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $56.77 | +54.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $100.45 | +173.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $158.58 | +330.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $154.93 | +321.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $183.94 | +399.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $45.01 | +22.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $111.19 | +202.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $109.51 | +197.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (15%) | $35 | $38 | $42 | $45 | $48 |
| Conservative (24%) | $37 | $41 | $45 | $49 | $52 |
| Base Case (36.4%) | $41 | $45 | $49 | $54 | $58 |
| Bull Case (49%) | $45 | $50 | $54 | $59 | $63 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 105.83 | 63.38 | 16.07 | 350.00 | 124.73 |
| EV/EBIT | 43.95 | 42.42 | 15.03 | 88.69 | 26.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.77 | 26.85 | 11.06 | 34.13 | 9.15 |
| P/FCF | 62.83 | 43.94 | 8.38 | 229.94 | 76.18 |
| P/FFO | 25.55 | 29.01 | 10.42 | 40.17 | 12.64 |
| P/AFFO | 30.02 | 34.01 | 11.14 | 47.74 | 15.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.75 | 4.14 | 1.22 | 5.81 | 1.57 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.81 | 2.78 | 0.92 | 4.52 | 1.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CNMD's fair value at $109.51 vs the current price of $36.80, implying +197.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $109.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $87.22 (P10) to $153.45 (P90), with a median of $116.13.
CNMD's current P/E of 24.4x compares to the industry median of 29.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -18.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 105.8x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
21 analysts cover CNMD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $78.00 (range: $61.00 — $95.00), implying +112.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CNMD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 23030.0% to approximately $122. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.