Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$151.03
→
Intrinsic$168.35
+11%
$95.30$168.35$307.05
Market implies 18% growth for 5 years
EXR appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $151, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (18%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $95 → Bull $307. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $219 | $242 | $267 | $293 |
| 10% | $135 | $151 | $168 | $186 |
| 12% | $89 | $101 | $114 | $127 |
| 14% | $60 | $70 | $80 | $90 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($307) offers 103% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
- 10% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (18%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($95) implies 37% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
- Using 20% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$1.97B
Year 2$2.37B
Year 3$2.85B
Year 4$3.43B
Year 5$4.13B
Terminal$60.75B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.4%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$1.63BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.