MODEL VERDICT
Compass, Inc. (COMP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $7.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $7.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $8.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $7.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $7.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $3.35 | -54.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 2 industry peers | $1.03 | -86.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $7.04 | -4.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $7.43 | +0.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $27.77 | +275.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $28.57 | +286.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $7.17 | -3.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.41 | -13.3% | 100% | 63 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 20.56 | 12.13 | 4.47 | 52.66 | 20.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.85 | 4.06 | 1.92 | 7.68 | 2.46 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.41 | 0.46 | 0.17 | 0.53 | 0.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates COMP's fair value at $6.41 vs the current price of $7.39, implying -13.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.01 (P10) to $8.27 (P90), with a median of $6.06.
COMP's current P/E of -21.7x compares to the industry median of 23.9x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -191.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover COMP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.29 (range: $12.00 — $17.00), implying +93.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for COMP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.