MODEL VERDICT
The RMR Group Inc. (RMR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $69.96 | +296.8% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $98.30 | +457.6% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $48.69 | +176.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $45.81 | +159.8% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 15 analyst estimates | $17.63 | +0.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 24 industry peers | $56.68 | +221.5% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 24 industry peers | $54.93 | +211.6% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $46.72 | +165.0% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 |
| Conservative (5%) | $14 | $16 | $18 | $21 | $23 |
| Base Case (-13.5%) | $12 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
| Bull Case (-18%) | $11 | $13 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.18 | 14.47 | 4.36 | 18.13 | 4.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.44 | 7.83 | 2.61 | 12.36 | 3.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.69 | 7.31 | 0.75 | 13.13 | 4.23 |
| P/FCF | 8.77 | 8.44 | 3.44 | 15.67 | 5.05 |
| P/FFO | 18.92 | 15.25 | 1.07 | 40.48 | 13.57 |
| P/TBV | 1.88 | 2.11 | 0.82 | 3.14 | 0.83 |
| P/AFFO | 19.91 | 16.37 | 1.07 | 41.32 | 13.62 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.81 | 2.10 | 0.62 | 3.12 | 0.90 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.08 | 1.03 | 0.35 | 2.04 | 0.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates RMR's fair value at $46.72 vs the current price of $17.63, implying +165.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $46.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $31.62 (P10) to $56.28 (P90), with a median of $43.28.
RMR's current P/E of 17.1x compares to the industry median of 44.5x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -61.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover RMR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $32.00 (range: $32.00 — $32.00), implying +81.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RMR trades at the 770th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RMR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.