MODEL VERDICT
Coty Inc. (COTY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $2.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $2.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $2.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $2.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $2.17 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $5.16 | +108.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $2.12 | -14.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $6.95 | +181.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $0.32 | -87.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $3.02 | +22.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $10.63 | +330.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $12.44 | +403.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $6.88 | +178.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.75 | +92.2% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 43.48 | 27.61 | 22.18 | 80.65 | 32.30 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.56 | 28.45 | 12.60 | 85.26 | 29.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.14 | 14.70 | 10.10 | 25.29 | 5.55 |
| P/FCF | 26.95 | 21.99 | 9.68 | 55.46 | 17.75 |
| P/FFO | 21.10 | 12.04 | 9.20 | 51.56 | 17.59 |
| P/AFFO | 22.18 | 19.32 | 11.86 | 38.22 | 11.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.71 | 1.68 | 0.68 | 2.60 | 0.59 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.23 | 1.13 | 0.46 | 1.98 | 0.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates COTY's fair value at $4.75 vs the current price of $2.47, implying +92.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.19 (P10) to $5.87 (P90), with a median of $5.00.
COTY's current P/E of -5.6x compares to the industry median of 22.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -125.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 43.5x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
33 analysts cover COTY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $4.01 (range: $2.00 — $8.00), implying +62.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (22), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for COTY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.