MODEL VERDICT
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $92.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $94.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $81.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $73.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $87.02 | Below threshold | -14.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $60.85 | -33.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 17 industry peers | $50.57 | -45.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $48.53 | -47.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 17 industry peers | $41.83 | -54.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 17 industry peers | $49.38 | -46.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 17 industry peers | $44.79 | -51.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $123.29 | +33.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $54.46 | -40.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $51.11 | -44.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 14 industry peers | $48.52 | -47.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 17 industry peers | $41.78 | -54.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $96.63 | +5.0% | 100% | 81 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 40× | 44× | 48× (Current) | 52× | 56× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $89 | $98 | $107 | $116 | $125 |
| Conservative (26%) | $97 | $107 | $116 | $126 | $136 |
| Base Case (40.6%) | $108 | $119 | $130 | $140 | $151 |
| Bull Case (55%) | $119 | $131 | $143 | $154 | $166 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 108.64 | 71.97 | 39.60 | 276.75 | 83.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 92.64 | 48.80 | 28.38 | 262.30 | 82.89 |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.22 | 41.36 | 20.30 | 92.71 | 25.40 |
| P/FCF | 80.71 | 75.07 | 17.01 | 201.91 | 62.92 |
| P/FFO | 49.47 | 45.97 | 23.80 | 100.95 | 26.61 |
| P/TBV | 136.15 | 54.30 | 20.87 | 461.69 | 183.86 |
| P/AFFO | 56.28 | 48.64 | 32.22 | 103.19 | 25.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.74 | 6.40 | 3.47 | 19.43 | 5.40 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.39 | 5.43 | 2.97 | 13.80 | 3.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ELF's fair value at $96.63 vs the current price of $92.05, implying +5.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $96.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $69.78 (P10) to $117.04 (P90), with a median of $92.18.
ELF's current P/E of 47.9x compares to the industry median of 25.3x (14 peers in the group). This represents a +89.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 108.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
27 analysts cover ELF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $112.86 (range: $85.00 — $165.00), implying +22.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (13), Hold (11), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ELF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 14320.0% to approximately $224. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.