MODEL VERDICT
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $109.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $114.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $108.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $101.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $113.73 | Below threshold | -12.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $43.72 | -60.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 17 industry peers | $53.80 | -50.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 17 industry peers | $39.91 | -63.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 17 industry peers | $33.52 | -69.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 17 industry peers | $26.71 | -75.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $77.71 | -29.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $81.60 | -25.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 17 industry peers | $39.82 | -63.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $65.69 | -40.0% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 65.54 | 49.97 | 37.88 | 143.11 | 39.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.59 | 33.60 | 29.12 | 84.04 | 21.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.22 | 26.15 | 18.65 | 83.35 | 22.47 |
| P/FCF | 44.66 | 45.40 | 18.77 | 58.94 | 14.23 |
| P/FFO | 38.04 | 31.41 | 22.27 | 75.42 | 19.07 |
| P/TBV | 314.41 | 312.70 | 57.09 | 575.14 | 234.93 |
| P/AFFO | 75.09 | 47.87 | 43.59 | 145.34 | 43.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 14.11 | 14.08 | 5.09 | 24.65 | 6.91 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.74 | 5.10 | 1.73 | 8.41 | 2.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates EL's fair value at $65.69 vs the current price of $109.47, implying -40.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $65.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $50.12 (P10) to $86.43 (P90), with a median of $67.39.
EL's current P/E of -34.8x compares to the industry median of 25.9x (14 peers in the group). This represents a -234.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 65.5x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
46 analysts cover EL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $111.00 (range: $70.00 — $140.00), implying +1.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (19), Hold (22), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.