MODEL VERDICT
Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $19.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $19.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $19.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $20.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $21.24 | Below threshold | -1.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $12.00 | -38.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $11.87 | -39.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $8.15 | -58.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $13.54 | -31.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.88 | -34.3% | 100% | 50 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.27 | 11.64 | 3.34 | 15.83 | 6.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.78 | 12.49 | 3.81 | 19.81 | 5.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.52 | 6.17 | 2.16 | 13.97 | 4.56 |
| P/FCF | 10.57 | 11.04 | 6.03 | 14.64 | 4.32 |
| P/FFO | 10.65 | 4.13 | 2.33 | 45.19 | 15.48 |
| P/TBV | 1.84 | 1.96 | 0.85 | 2.62 | 0.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.34 | 1.35 | 0.65 | 2.24 | 0.55 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.82 | 1.57 | 1.01 | 4.17 | 1.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates CRK's fair value at $12.88 vs the current price of $19.61, implying -34.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.85 (P10) to $19.68 (P90), with a median of $13.91.
CRK's current P/E of -25.8x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -281.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.3x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
39 analysts cover CRK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.50 (range: $9.00 — $29.00), implying -5.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (24), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CRK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.