MODEL VERDICT
Crocs, Inc. (CROX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $103.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $102.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $105.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $102.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $99.76 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $275.97 | +165.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $20.32 | -80.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $184.76 | +77.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $21.10 | -79.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $203.04 | +95.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $65.01 | -37.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $82.17 | -20.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $185.17 | +78.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $192.32 | +85.1% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.79 | 11.85 | 6.90 | 25.08 | 6.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.24 | 10.68 | 6.80 | 25.72 | 7.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.87 | 12.48 | 6.94 | 26.75 | 7.60 |
| P/FCF | 18.02 | 13.47 | 7.03 | 56.32 | 17.57 |
| P/FFO | 11.53 | 11.19 | 6.43 | 20.92 | 5.25 |
| P/AFFO | 13.84 | 12.90 | 6.89 | 28.06 | 7.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 91.01 | 8.22 | 3.57 | 580.17 | 215.82 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.17 | 1.89 | 1.15 | 3.53 | 0.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates CROX's fair value at $192.32 vs the current price of $103.88, implying +85.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $192.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $120.69 (P10) to $175.85 (P90), with a median of $146.31.
CROX's current P/E of -69.3x compares to the industry median of 20.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -447.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.8x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
37 analysts cover CROX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $106.88 (range: $81.00 — $135.00), implying +2.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (17), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CROX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.