MODEL VERDICT
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $79.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $89.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $96.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $95.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $80.14 | Below threshold | +20.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $11.99 | -84.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $32.68 | -58.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.74 | -73.9% | 100% | 44 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates CRWV's fair value at $20.74 vs the current price of $79.56, implying -73.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 44/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.80 (P10) to $38.47 (P90), with a median of $21.81.
CRWV's current P/E of -28.3x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -223.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
25 analysts cover CRWV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $121.07 (range: $84.00 — $175.00), implying +52.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 44/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CRWV.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.