MODEL VERDICT
Cantaloupe, Inc. (CTLP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $3.64 | -66.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $6.36 | -42.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $23.57 | +114.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $0.55 | -95.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $5.49 | -50.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $0.79 | -92.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $8.65 | -21.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $8.20 | -25.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $23.60 | +114.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $0.50 | -95.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1448.15 | +13065.0% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $8 | $10 | $12 | $13 | $15 |
| Conservative (7%) | $8 | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $9 | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24725.25 | 63.40 | 12.35 | 74100.00 | 42759.80 |
| EV/EBIT | 81.48 | 43.60 | 31.69 | 169.14 | 76.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 53.17 | 40.91 | 19.70 | 111.16 | 41.67 |
| P/FCF | 128.84 | 93.79 | 55.06 | 237.68 | 96.22 |
| P/FFO | 47.66 | 43.04 | 9.63 | 94.92 | 37.00 |
| P/TBV | 14.98 | 10.86 | 4.56 | 45.92 | 14.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.79 | 3.82 | 2.15 | 6.51 | 1.35 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.83 | 2.63 | 1.68 | 4.05 | 0.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CTLP's fair value at $1448.15 vs the current price of $11.00, implying +13065.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1448.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.28 (P10) to $4770.41 (P90), with a median of $1441.94.
CTLP's current P/E of 12.8x compares to the industry median of 27.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -53.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24725.2x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover CTLP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $11.00 (range: $11.00 — $11.00), implying +0.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CTLP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.