MODEL VERDICT
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $251.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $231.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $231.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $245.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $208.47 | Pending | +15.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 24 analyst estimates | $611.20 | +143.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $693.57 | +176.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 18 industry peers | $81.46 | -67.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 23 industry peers | $436.50 | +73.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 23 industry peers | $550.02 | +119.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $532.95 | +112.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 29 industry peers | $306.54 | +22.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 29 industry peers | $175.22 | -30.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 18 industry peers | $81.46 | -67.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $435.63 | +73.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $402.03 | +60.2% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 70× | 77× | 84× (Current) | 91× | 98× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $214 | $236 | $257 | $278 | $300 |
| Conservative (5%) | $221 | $243 | $265 | $287 | $309 |
| Base Case (-29.6%) | $148 | $163 | $177 | $192 | $207 |
| Bull Case (-40%) | $126 | $139 | $151 | $164 | $176 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.60 | 7.95 | 6.29 | 67.68 | 22.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.93 | 9.50 | 8.45 | 20.48 | 4.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.50 | 7.01 | 4.72 | 13.05 | 2.68 |
| P/FCF | 8.86 | 6.24 | 4.69 | 25.55 | 7.46 |
| P/FFO | 5.71 | 4.36 | 3.39 | 10.75 | 2.86 |
| P/AFFO | 7.17 | 4.94 | 3.74 | 14.43 | 4.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.39 | 2.38 | 2.01 | 2.74 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.30 | 1.26 | 0.96 | 1.85 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NXST's fair value at $402.03 vs the current price of $251.02, implying +60.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $402.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $311.76 (P10) to $544.70 (P90), with a median of $426.32.
NXST's current P/E of 83.7x compares to the industry median of 27.2x (18 peers in the group). This represents a +208.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
24 analysts cover NXST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $250.00 (range: $250.00 — $250.00), implying -0.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NXST trades at the 8330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NXST's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2770.0% to approximately $321. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.