MODEL VERDICT
Curbline Properties Corp. (CURB) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $27.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $27.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $26.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $25.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $23.50 | Below threshold | +9.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $11.94 | -57.1% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $18.30 | -34.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $31.61 | +13.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $8.67 | -68.8% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $6.57 | -76.4% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $15.75 | -43.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $13.33 | -52.1% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.39 | -41.0% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 63× | 69× | 75× (Current) | 81× | 87× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $24 | $27 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
| Conservative (7%) | $25 | $27 | $30 | $32 | $34 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $26 | $28 | $31 | $33 | $35 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 | $37 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates CURB's fair value at $16.39 vs the current price of $27.81, implying -41.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.81 (P10) to $18.28 (P90), with a median of $16.05.
CURB's current P/E of 75.2x compares to the industry median of 23.4x (20 peers in the group). This represents a +220.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
7 analysts cover CURB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $28.00 (range: $26.00 — $32.00), implying +0.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CURB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1370.0% to approximately $32. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.