Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$334.16
→
Intrinsic$159.32
-52%
$109.05$159.32$259.18
Current price reflects execution expectations above 25% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $109 → Bull $259. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $259).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $200 | $216 | $232 | $250 |
| 10% | $138 | $148 | $159 | $171 |
| 12% | $105 | $113 | $121 | $129 |
| 14% | $85 | $91 | $97 | $104 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($259) with 30% growth, 8% discount rate
Bear Case
- Bear case ($109) implies 67% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 52% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($259) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.11B
Year 2$1.39B
Year 3$1.74B
Year 4$2.17B
Year 5$2.71B
Terminal$42.99B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$889.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.