MODEL VERDICT
Carvana Co. (CVNA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $334.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $336.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $342.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $391.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $463.09 | Below threshold | -11.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $156.04 | -53.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $131.58 | -60.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $247.21 | -26.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $91.40 | -72.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $155.56 | -53.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $96.17 | -71.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $143.04 | -57.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $112.19 | -66.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $247.21 | -26.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $91.69 | -72.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4494.24 | +1244.9% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 34× | 37× | 40× (Current) | 43× | 46× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $299 | $325 | $352 | $378 | $404 |
| Conservative (7%) | $306 | $333 | $360 | $387 | $414 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $316 | $344 | $372 | $400 | $428 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $326 | $355 | $384 | $412 | $441 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 82.81 | 70.59 | 49.94 | 127.90 | 40.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6174.85 | 55.58 | 23.88 | 24564.37 | 12259.69 |
| P/FCF | 51.27 | 32.51 | 14.83 | 106.47 | 48.61 |
| P/FFO | 40.57 | 52.20 | 13.24 | 56.27 | 23.76 |
| P/TBV | 24.95 | 22.83 | 19.79 | 37.49 | 7.29 |
| P/AFFO | 46.64 | 61.66 | 14.85 | 63.41 | 27.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 24.10 | 22.47 | 19.42 | 36.56 | 7.12 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.86 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 4.66 | 1.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates CVNA's fair value at $4494.24 vs the current price of $334.16, implying +1244.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4494.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $167.79 (P10) to $18813.82 (P90), with a median of $5355.45.
CVNA's current P/E of 39.5x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +35.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 82.8x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
44 analysts cover CVNA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $465.33 (range: $320.00 — $550.00), implying +39.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (20), Sell (2), Strong Sell (1).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CVNA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.