MODEL VERDICT
Citizens & Northern Corporation (CZNC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $22.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $23.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $23.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $23.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $23.74 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $19.36 | -13.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $24.26 | +7.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $23.35 | +3.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $29.78 | +32.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $19.38 | -13.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $26.04 | +15.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.67 | +0.9% | 100% | 94 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $16 | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 |
| Conservative (5%) | $17 | $20 | $23 | $26 | $29 |
| Base Case (2.5%) | $16 | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $17 | $20 | $23 | $26 | $29 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.40 | 13.82 | 11.01 | 19.35 | 2.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.58 | 14.84 | 10.20 | 20.76 | 3.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.76 | 13.82 | 9.66 | 19.32 | 3.47 |
| P/FCF | 12.57 | 11.44 | 9.12 | 19.21 | 3.23 |
| P/FFO | 13.23 | 12.80 | 10.09 | 17.71 | 2.52 |
| P/TBV | 1.51 | 1.65 | 1.20 | 1.82 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 14.80 | 13.98 | 10.82 | 20.47 | 3.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.23 | 1.30 | 0.94 | 1.54 | 0.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.96 | 2.91 | 1.83 | 4.54 | 0.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CZNC's fair value at $22.67 vs the current price of $22.48, implying +0.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.50 (P10) to $25.11 (P90), with a median of $23.28.
CZNC's current P/E of 15.4x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +16.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.4x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
1 analysts cover CZNC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $23.50 (range: $23.50 — $23.50), implying +4.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CZNC trades at the 7310th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CZNC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2520.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.