MODEL VERDICT
First United Corporation (FUNC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $46.70 | +20.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $35.12 | -9.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $38.98 | +0.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $33.73 | -13.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $46.70 | +20.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $46.12 | +18.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.43 | -1.3% | 100% | 87 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $26 | $33 | $39 | $46 | $53 |
| Conservative (7%) | $27 | $34 | $41 | $47 | $54 |
| Base Case (11.2%) | $28 | $35 | $42 | $49 | $56 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $29 | $36 | $44 | $51 | $58 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.13 | 10.45 | 5.23 | 13.02 | 2.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.02 | 12.11 | 3.86 | 19.94 | 6.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.30 | 10.63 | 3.42 | 16.88 | 5.15 |
| P/FCF | 9.19 | 7.46 | 5.70 | 13.78 | 3.23 |
| P/FFO | 7.45 | 7.89 | 4.56 | 10.35 | 2.10 |
| P/TBV | 1.10 | 1.05 | 0.91 | 1.49 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 11.49 | 8.03 | 5.21 | 31.14 | 9.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.01 | 0.96 | 0.83 | 1.36 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.75 | 1.65 | 1.41 | 2.29 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FUNC's fair value at $38.43 vs the current price of $38.92, implying -1.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.72 (P10) to $40.06 (P90), with a median of $36.88.
FUNC's current P/E of 12.4x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a -16.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
1 analysts cover FUNC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $25.00 (range: $25.00 — $25.00), implying -35.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FUNC trades at the 2410th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FUNC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.