MODEL VERDICT
Dayforce Inc (DAY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $69.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $69.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $69.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $69.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $69.86 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $46.80 | -33.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $28.79 | -58.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $2.54 | -96.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $20.22 | -71.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $8.05 | -88.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $17.54 | -74.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $44.83 | -35.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $46.90 | -32.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $2.50 | -96.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $20.30 | -70.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $77.50 | +10.9% | 100% | 75 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 533× | 584× | 635× (Current) | 686× | 737× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $60 | $66 | $71 | $77 | $83 |
| Conservative (5%) | $62 | $67 | $73 | $79 | $85 |
| Base Case (-27.0%) | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 | $59 |
| Bull Case (-36%) | $37 | $41 | $44 | $48 | $52 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 326.74 | 191.77 | 128.08 | 660.36 | 290.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 729.64 | 157.35 | 77.91 | 3169.41 | 1364.40 |
| EV/EBITDA | 147.84 | 81.39 | 38.92 | 393.34 | 138.48 |
| P/FCF | 142.22 | 101.22 | 67.94 | 257.51 | 101.22 |
| P/FFO | 1436.60 | 200.78 | 51.13 | 7481.20 | 2969.83 |
| P/AFFO | 213.88 | 122.21 | 84.50 | 526.61 | 210.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.14 | 4.65 | 2.43 | 7.45 | 1.70 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.43 | 7.87 | 5.31 | 18.56 | 5.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DAY's fair value at $77.50 vs the current price of $69.86, implying +10.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $77.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $50.82 (P10) to $161.67 (P90), with a median of $99.78.
DAY's current P/E of 635.1x compares to the industry median of 23.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +2648.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 326.7x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
22 analysts cover DAY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $67.71 (range: $53.00 — $71.00), implying -3.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (15), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DAY trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (326.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DAY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.