MODEL VERDICT
Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $210.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $216.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $196.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $177.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $177.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $163.14 | -22.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $351.37 | +67.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $663.67 | +215.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $1210.14 | +475.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $1132.99 | +439.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $366.57 | +74.5% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.60 | 16.52 | 5.73 | 25.05 | 8.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.97 | 17.39 | 6.60 | 30.89 | 7.72 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.13 | 8.66 | 5.35 | 11.97 | 2.49 |
| P/FCF | 29.77 | 9.47 | 4.16 | 102.50 | 39.57 |
| P/FFO | 7.58 | 7.64 | 2.59 | 12.68 | 4.53 |
| P/AFFO | 12.68 | 12.29 | 3.41 | 22.20 | 8.84 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.31 | 0.96 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates DELL's fair value at $366.57 vs the current price of $210.13, implying +74.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $366.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $245.14 (P10) to $514.61 (P90), with a median of $370.23.
DELL's current P/E of N/Ax compares to the industry median of 22.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a N/A discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.6x over 6 years. Signal: N/A.
43 analysts cover DELL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $168.50 (range: $101.00 — $215.00), implying -19.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (14), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DELL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.