MODEL VERDICT
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $28.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $28.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $26.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $24.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $24.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $50.78 | +77.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $47.85 | +67.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $10.94 | -61.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $20.10 | -29.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $96.08 | +236.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $91.27 | +219.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $10.56 | -63.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $33.40 | +16.9% | 100% | 72 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.60 | 11.06 | 6.11 | 24.18 | 7.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.33 | 14.17 | 8.47 | 16.99 | 3.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.29 | 6.70 | 6.28 | 11.05 | 1.67 |
| P/FCF | 19.78 | 14.40 | 6.23 | 50.72 | 15.71 |
| P/FFO | 6.32 | 6.04 | 3.48 | 11.38 | 2.47 |
| P/TBV | 13.87 | 10.25 | 4.54 | 30.44 | 11.45 |
| P/AFFO | 35.84 | 21.04 | 5.96 | 93.36 | 35.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.12 | 1.06 | 0.95 | 1.28 | 0.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.78 | 0.75 | 0.57 | 0.95 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates HPE's fair value at $33.40 vs the current price of $28.57, implying +16.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $33.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.39 (P10) to $44.00 (P90), with a median of $32.72.
HPE's current P/E of -640.6x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -2355.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.6x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
37 analysts cover HPE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $28.71 (range: $23.00 — $31.00), implying +0.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (21), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HPE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.