MODEL VERDICT
Journey Medical Corporation (DERM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 33 analyst estimates | $4.24 | -47.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 44 industry peers | $8.10 | +0.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 44 industry peers | $6.49 | -19.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.49 | -44.1% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B Ratio | 3.33 | 3.10 | 1.98 | 5.16 | 1.51 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.17 | 1.37 | 0.46 | 1.48 | 0.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates DERM's fair value at $4.49 vs the current price of $8.04, implying -44.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.21 (P10) to $6.61 (P90), with a median of $4.89.
DERM's current P/E of -11.2x compares to the industry median of 28.7x (19 peers in the group). This represents a -138.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover DERM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $13.00 (range: $13.00 — $13.00), implying +61.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DERM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.