MODEL VERDICT
Perrigo Company plc (PRGO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $11.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $11.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $11.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $11.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $10.86 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $27.21 | +128.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $17.04 | +43.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $30.59 | +156.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $103.20 | +765.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $77.99 | +554.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $16.97 | +42.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.94 | +352.5% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 120.75 | 53.96 | 18.31 | 491.65 | 182.57 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.23 | 15.02 | 9.72 | 19.90 | 3.44 |
| P/FCF | 191.78 | 14.44 | 13.07 | 1237.39 | 461.11 |
| P/FFO | 20.06 | 22.14 | 12.55 | 27.39 | 5.99 |
| P/TBV | 1954.41 | 85.84 | 3.30 | 5774.08 | 3308.19 |
| P/AFFO | 58.91 | 51.06 | 17.42 | 117.50 | 41.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.66 | 1.21 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.11 | 1.03 | 0.45 | 1.82 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRGO's fair value at $53.94 vs the current price of $11.92, implying +352.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.09 (P10) to $138.91 (P90), with a median of $55.57.
PRGO's current P/E of -1.2x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -104.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
36 analysts cover PRGO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $20.00 (range: $20.00 — $20.00), implying +67.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (21), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PRGO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.