Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)
Valuation Overview•Is Dollar Tree, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 59/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside with steady expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
DLTR demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (8.0% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 8.5%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.0B | +10.4% | +8.0% | -5.3% | +2.3% | |
| EBITDA | $489.6M | — | -3.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $347.3M | +142.3% | -7.4% | — | +16.3% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.76 | +142.3% | -6.3% | +1.0% | +16.8% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $391.5M | -10.5% | +57.0% | -5.1% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 36.7% | 36.0% | 35.0% | 32.8% |
| Operating Margin | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.3% |
| Net Margin | 6.5% | -5.5% | -0.2% | 1.3% |
| FCF Margin | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.53 | $1.74 | +13.7% | ||
| Q1'26 | $2.53 | $2.56 | +1.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.09 | $1.21 | +11.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.42 | $0.77 | +84.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.21 | $1.26 | +4.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $2.20 | $2.11 | -4.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.07 | $1.12 | +4.7% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.04 | $0.67 | -35.6% |
Total return is +14.5% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -10.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -12.6% | -21.9% | — |
| 1Y | +14.5% | -10.5% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -6.5% | -27.5% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +2.2% | -11.4% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +1.9% | -12.1% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) valuation, health, and returns.
Dollar Tree, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $96.65)
Dollar Tree, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $96.65 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $137.17 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $122.53 (implying +9.7% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Dollar Tree, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 59/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 3.0 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 13.2%.
Dollar Tree, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 7.2% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -4.4% in the last 12 months.
Dollar Tree, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +10.4% 1Y revenue growth and +142.3% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +8.0%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 49 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a 5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +9.7% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Dollar Tree, Inc. include: -38.5% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.83x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.