MODEL VERDICT
Electronic Arts Inc. (EA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $202.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $202.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $203.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $203.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $202.74 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 2 analyst estimates | $269.84 | +33.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $98.02 | -51.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $137.20 | -32.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $118.50 | -41.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $167.50 | -17.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $128.78 | -36.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $142.76 | -29.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $140.22 | -30.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $144.40 | -28.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $54.65 | -73.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $156.66 | -22.5% | 100% | 80 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 40× | 44× | 48× (Current) | 52× | 56× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $173 | $190 | $207 | $224 | $242 |
| Conservative (5%) | $178 | $195 | $213 | $231 | $249 |
| Base Case (-16.3%) | $142 | $156 | $170 | $184 | $198 |
| Bull Case (-22%) | $132 | $145 | $158 | $172 | $185 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.65 | 44.27 | 13.94 | 48.30 | 12.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.27 | 27.14 | 23.58 | 33.15 | 3.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.20 | 24.86 | 20.10 | 28.80 | 3.78 |
| P/FCF | 23.78 | 23.04 | 18.81 | 29.03 | 3.96 |
| P/FFO | 27.92 | 28.26 | 13.28 | 37.83 | 8.21 |
| P/TBV | 25.81 | 22.95 | 7.67 | 75.23 | 23.66 |
| P/AFFO | 32.01 | 32.15 | 13.89 | 43.08 | 9.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.76 | 5.30 | 4.58 | 8.45 | 1.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.25 | 6.65 | 5.00 | 7.65 | 1.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates EA's fair value at $156.66 vs the current price of $202.09, implying -22.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $156.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $139.12 (P10) to $189.47 (P90), with a median of $163.98.
EA's current P/E of 47.8x compares to the industry median of 32.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +47.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
66 analysts cover EA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $172.65 (range: $118.00 — $210.00), implying -14.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (36), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (18), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EA trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (37.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7480.0% to approximately $353. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.