MODEL VERDICT
Eventbrite, Inc. (EB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $4.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $4.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $4.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $4.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.51 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $5.00 | +10.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $6.39 | +41.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $9.74 | +116.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $8.50 | +88.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $4.18 | -7.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.79 | +72.7% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 60.57 | 47.57 | 8.94 | 138.51 | 51.89 |
| P/TBV | 80.40 | 53.39 | 8.02 | 206.78 | 92.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.39 | 3.88 | 1.84 | 9.68 | 2.59 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.19 | 2.57 | 0.96 | 15.25 | 5.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates EB's fair value at $7.79 vs the current price of $4.51, implying +72.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.36 (P10) to $11.25 (P90), with a median of $8.09.
EB's current P/E of -41.0x compares to the industry median of 41.5x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -198.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover EB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $11.23 (range: $2.70 — $23.00), implying +149.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.