MODEL VERDICT
Ellomay Capital Ltd. (ELLO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $24.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $25.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $28.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $27.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $27.14 | Below threshold | +1.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 61.02 | 78.20 | 16.93 | 87.94 | 38.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 74.08 | 47.91 | 19.39 | 153.58 | 60.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 318.51 | 28.11 | 18.70 | 2043.70 | 760.79 |
| P/FFO | 13.58 | 12.03 | 10.44 | 22.33 | 4.94 |
| P/TBV | 2.24 | 1.99 | 1.15 | 3.44 | 0.88 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.14 | 1.90 | 1.07 | 3.31 | 0.85 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.32 | 5.19 | 3.62 | 42.97 | 14.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 2 valuation metrics, the model estimates ELLO's fair value at $339.10 vs the current price of $24.09, implying +1307.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $339.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (8,854 iterations) gives a range of $2.65 (P10) to $596.12 (P90), with a median of $187.70.
ELLO's current P/E of -40.0x compares to the industry median of 41.1x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -197.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 61.0x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for ELLO.
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (11), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ELLO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.