Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing F more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Ford Motor Company (F) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
46
analysts
16 bullish · 6 bearish · 46 covering F
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
24
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$14
+19.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
7.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $45.8B
F price targets
Three scenarios for where F stock could go
Current
~$12
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ford Motor Company
F · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersDecember year-end
Ford Motor Company is a global automotive manufacturer that designs, builds, and sells Ford trucks, SUVs, commercial vehicles, and Lincoln luxury cars. It generates revenue primarily through vehicle sales (~90% of revenue) and its Ford Credit financing arm (~10%), which provides loans and leases to customers and dealers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its iconic brand recognition—particularly in trucks and commercial vehicles—and its extensive global manufacturing and dealer network.
Market Cap
$45.8B
Revenue TTM
$189.9B
Net Income TTM
-$6.1B
Net Margin
-3.2%
F Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+399.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.37/$0.33
Revenue
$50.2B/$45.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.45/$0.35
Revenue
$50.5B/$47.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.13/$0.18
Revenue
$45.9B/$43.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.66/$0.18
Revenue
$43.3B/$42.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.37/$0.33 | +11.9% | $50.2B/$45.8B | +9.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.45/$0.35 | +27.2% | $50.5B/$47.0B | +7.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.13/$0.18 | -27.5% | $45.9B/$43.6B | +5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.66/$0.18 | +260.9% | $43.3B/$42.7B | +1.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$194.7B
+2.5% YoY
FY2
$201.5B
+3.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.17
+88.5% YoY
FY2
$-0.20
-16.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$11.9B
FCF Margin: 6.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
F beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
F Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $13.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Ford Credit
100.0%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
65.5%
-1.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Ford Credit is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 65.5%, down 1.9% YoY.
F Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $68 — implies +472.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
472.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
F
-5.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
123% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
F
-5.7x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
129% discount
vs F 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-5.7x
vs
5Y Average
7.6x
175% discount
Forward PE
7.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-61%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
-51%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-5.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
-123%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
-129%
5Y Avg
7.6x
-175%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+46%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+97%
5Y Avg
17.0x
+31%
Price/FCF
3.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
-83%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
-75%
5Y Avg
6.6x
-44%
Price/Sales
0.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-92%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-66%
5Y Avg
0.3x
-27%
Dividend Yield
6.43%
S&P 500
1.87%
+244%
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
+189%
5Y Avg
5.70%
+13%
| Metric | F | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 7.4x | 19.1x-61% | 15.1x-51% | — |
| Trailing PE | -5.7x | 25.1x-123% | 19.3x-129% | 7.6x-175% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.91x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.3x | 15.2x+46% | 11.3x+97% | 17.0x+31% |
| Price/FCF | 3.7x | 21.1x-83% | 14.6x-75% | 6.6x-44% |
| Price/Sales | 0.2x | 3.1x-92% | 0.7x-66% | 0.3x-27% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.43% | 1.87% | 2.23% | 5.70% |
F trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolF Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
F returns 6.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$189.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
9.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-3.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-1.50
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$11.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-2.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$23.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$144.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
12.1× FCF
~12.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-14.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.4%
Dividend
6.4%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.75
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
3.9B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageF Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
EV & Autonomous Transition
Ford is investing heavily in electric and autonomous vehicle development, facing high upfront capital outlays and uncertain consumer adoption rates. Supply‑chain bottlenecks and cybersecurity threats add further risk to the transition, potentially delaying product launches and eroding margins.
High Risk
Financial Stability & Debt
The company’s high debt‑to‑equity ratio, rising credit allowances, and short‑term borrowing expose it to market volatility and interest‑rate swings. Profitability is under pressure, with Ford Credit’s earnings threatened by declining residual values of off‑lease EVs.
High Risk
Supply Chain & Production Disruptions
Ford’s global supply chain is vulnerable to natural disasters, geopolitical events, and supplier insolvency. Recent fires at Novelis and shortages of critical components such as memory chips have already disrupted production and increased costs, especially under aluminum tariffs.
Medium
Regulatory & Legal Compliance
Compliance with evolving safety, emissions, and fuel‑economy regulations requires ongoing R&D investment. Product‑defect lawsuits and recall liabilities pose additional legal and financial risks.
Medium
Macroeconomic & Trade Risks
Global economic conditions, including GDP growth and consumer confidence, directly influence demand. Trade disputes, such as aluminum tariffs, can raise input costs and compress profitability.
Medium
Competitive Landscape & Consumer Shift
The automotive sector faces intense competition from legacy automakers and new entrants. Shifting consumer preferences toward SUVs, trucks, and environmentally friendly vehicles intensify market pressure on Ford’s product portfolio.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why F Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Core Strengths: Ford Blue & Pro
Ford is doubling down on its highly profitable truck segment (Ford Blue) and commercial vehicles (Ford Pro). Ford Pro boasts strong revenue and EBIT margins above 10%, with growing software and services subscriptions that create a sticky, recurring revenue stream.
Profitability Outlook: Adjusted EBIT 2026
Ford has guided for adjusted EBIT of $8 billion to $10 billion in 2026, a significant improvement from previous years. This is supported by expected lower tariff costs and industrial improvements.
ICE Vehicle Demand Rebound
Despite challenges in the EV market, demand for Ford’s internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, especially trucks, remains robust and contributes significantly to profitability.
Software & Services Margin Expansion
The company anticipates growth in software and services, which are higher‑margin and more profitable than traditional vehicle sales, indicating potential for margin expansion.
Strategic Clarity & Pragmatism
Ford’s decision to reduce unprofitable EV investments and focus on its strengths demonstrates a pragmatic approach that could improve returns and streamline execution.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
F Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$11.69
52W Range Position
37%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$9.88
+18.3% from the low
52-Week High
$14.80
-21.0% from the high
1 Month
+0.65%
3 Month
-14.83%
YTD
-12.4%
1 Year
+14.9%
3Y CAGR
-0.9%
5Y CAGR
+0.1%
10Y CAGR
-1.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
F vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
7.4x
vs 7.7x median
-4% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.5%
vs +5.0% median
-50% below peer median
Net Margin
-3.2%
vs 2.3% median
-238% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
F F Ford Motor Company | $45.8B | 7.4x | +2.5% | -3.2% | Hold | +19.5% |
GM GM General Motors Company | $68.7B | 6.0x | +1.7% | 1.4% | Buy | +20.5% |
STL STLA Stellantis N.V. | $20.9B | 9.4x | +2.8% | -6.2% | Hold | +49.4% |
TM TM Toyota Motor Corporation | $247.6B | 0.1x | +9.0% | 9.4% | Hold | -5.6% |
HMC HMC Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | $31.3B | — | +7.7% | 2.3% | Hold | +30.4% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.46T | 201.3x | +5.0% | 4.0% | Hold | +15.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
F Dividend and Capital Return
F returns 6.4% total yield, led by a 6.43% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
6.43%
Payout Ratio
—
How F Splits Its Return
Div 6.43%
Dividend 6.43%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.75
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.5%
5Y Div CAGR
38.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
3.9B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.75 | -3.8% | 0.0% | 5.7% |
| 2024 | $0.78 | -37.6% | 1.1% | 8.9% |
| 2023 | $1.25 | +150.0% | 0.7% | 10.8% |
| 2022 | $0.50 | +400.0% | 1.0% | 5.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsF Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ford Motor Company (F) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ford Motor Company (F) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 24 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $14, implying +19.5% from the current price of $12.
02What is the F stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for F is $14 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $16 (+36.9% from today), and the low-end target is $13 (+9.5%).
03Is Ford Motor Company (F) stock overvalued in 2026?
F trades at 7.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ford Motor Company (F) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for F in 2026 are: (1) EV & Autonomous Transition — Ford is investing heavily in electric and autonomous vehicle development, facing high upfront capital outlays and uncertain consumer adoption rates. (2) Financial Stability & Debt — The company’s high debt‑to‑equity ratio, rising credit allowances, and short‑term borrowing expose it to market volatility and interest‑rate swings. (3) Supply Chain & Production Disruptions — Ford’s global supply chain is vulnerable to natural disasters, geopolitical events, and supplier insolvency. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ford Motor Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates F will report consensus revenue of $194.7B (+2.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.17 (+88.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $201.5B in revenue.
06When does Ford Motor Company (F) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for F is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ford Motor Company generate?
Ford Motor Company (F) generated $11.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.3%. F returns capital to shareholders through dividends (6.4% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).