Upside case
Bull case
$6-57.7%
The bull case prices F at 4x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Ford Motor Company (F) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
46
analysts
16 bullish · 6 bearish · 46 covering F
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
24
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$15
+5.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$3 – $6
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $55.0B
F price targets
Three scenarios for where F stock could go
Current
~$14
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $14
Bear
$3
Base
$5
Bull
$6
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$5-67.9%
At 3x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$3-79.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push F down roughly 80% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ford Motor Company
F · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersDecember year-end
Ford Motor Company is a global automotive manufacturer that designs, builds, and sells Ford trucks, SUVs, commercial vehicles, and Lincoln luxury cars. It generates revenue primarily through vehicle sales (~90% of revenue) and its Ford Credit financing arm (~10%), which provides loans and leases to customers and dealers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its iconic brand recognition—particularly in trucks and commercial vehicles—and its extensive global manufacturing and dealer network.
Market Cap
$55.0B
Revenue TTM
$189.9B
Net Income TTM
-$6.1B
Net Margin
-3.2%
F Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+399.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.37/$0.33
Revenue
$50.2B/$45.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.45/$0.35
Revenue
$50.5B/$47.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.13/$0.18
Revenue
$45.9B/$43.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.66/$0.18
Revenue
$43.3B/$42.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.37/$0.33 | +11.9% | $50.2B/$45.8B | +9.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.45/$0.35 | +27.2% | $50.5B/$47.0B | +7.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.13/$0.18 | -27.5% | $45.9B/$43.6B | +5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.66/$0.18 | +260.9% | $43.3B/$42.7B | +1.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$193.7B
+2.0% YoY
FY2
$198.3B
+2.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.08
+94.5% YoY
FY2
$0.25
+405.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$11.9B
FCF Margin: 6.3%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.35
Expected Revenue
$48.7B
F beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
F Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $13.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Ford Credit
100.0%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
65.5%
-1.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Ford Credit is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 65.5%, down 1.9% YoY.
F Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $12 — implies -11.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
11.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
F
-6.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
128% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
F
-6.8x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
132% discount
vs F 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-6.8x
vs
5Y Average
7.6x
190% discount
Forward PE
8.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-55%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-48%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-6.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
-128%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-132%
5Y Avg
7.6x
-190%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
23.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+54%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+92%
5Y Avg
17.0x
+37%
Price/FCF
4.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
-79%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
-72%
5Y Avg
6.6x
-33%
Price/Sales
0.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-90%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-58%
5Y Avg
0.3x
-13%
Dividend Yield
5.35%
S&P 500
1.91%
+180%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
+146%
5Y Avg
5.70%
-6%
| Metric | F | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.4x | 18.8x-55% | 16.3x-48% | — |
| Trailing PE | -6.8x | 24.4x-128% | 21.2x-132% | 7.6x-190% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.4x | 15.2x+54% | 12.2x+92% | 17.0x+37% |
| Price/FCF | 4.4x | 20.7x-79% | 15.6x-72% | 6.6x-33% |
| Price/Sales | 0.3x | 3.1x-90% | 0.7x-58% | 0.3x-13% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.35% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 5.70% |
F trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolF Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
F returns 5.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$189.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
9.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-3.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-1.50
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$11.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-2.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$23.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$144.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
12.1× FCF
~12.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-14.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.4%
Dividend
5.4%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.75
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
3.9B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageF Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Dividend sustainability
Ford's dividend viability is under scrutiny due to shifting market dynamics, strategic realignments, and financial pressures.
High Risk
Profit credibility
The market is skeptical about Ford's ability to convert solid demand into credible 2026 earnings, requiring operational proof.
Medium
EV strategy execution
Investors are shifting focus from EV narratives to tangible operating performance, posing a challenge for Ford's EV strategy.
Medium
Market share pressure
Despite a slight increase in U.S. market share, Ford faces intense competition and margin pressures.
Lower
Capital allocation
Questions remain about Ford's capital allocation strategy amid financial and strategic uncertainties.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why F Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Expanding EV lineup
Bullish sentiment is driven by Ford's growing electric vehicle options, including models like the Mustang Mach-E and Escape Hybrid.
Attractive valuation metrics
Ford's trailing P/E of 11.81 and forward P/E of 9.74 suggest the stock is undervalued relative to earnings potential.
Energy storage partnership
Ford Energy's 5-year deal with EDF for up to 4 GWh/year of battery storage signals diversification into grid-scale energy solutions.
Strong institutional backing
Top holder Vanguard Group's 8% stake reflects institutional confidence in Ford's long-term strategy.
Hybrid and electric innovation
Ford's investment in hybrid & electric vehicle technology positions it competitively in the transitioning auto market.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
F Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$14.04
52W Range Position
49%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$10.40
+35.0% from the low
52-Week High
$17.78
-21.0% from the high
1 Month
+7.75%
3 Month
+19.19%
YTD
+5.2%
1 Year
+34.6%
3Y CAGR
-0.4%
5Y CAGR
-0.7%
10Y CAGR
+0.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
F vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.4x
vs 6.2x median
+36% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.0%
vs +6.7% median
-70% below peer median
Net Margin
-3.2%
vs 1.4% median
-334% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
F F Ford Motor Company | $55.0B | 8.4x | +2.0% | -3.2% | Hold | +5.1% |
GM GM General Motors Company | $71.5B | 6.2x | +1.7% | 1.4% | Buy | +18.3% |
STL STLA Stellantis N.V. | $18.4B | 8.6x | +4.9% | -6.2% | Hold | +66.6% |
TM TM Toyota Motor Corporation | $226.7B | 0.1x | +8.2% | 7.6% | Hold | +3.1% |
HMC HMC Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | $34.1B | 0.1x | +6.7% | -2.0% | Hold | +20.0% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.50T | 212.2x | +8.2% | 4.0% | Hold | +12.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
F Dividend and Capital Return
F returns 5.4% total yield, led by a 5.35% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
5.35%
Payout Ratio
—
How F Splits Its Return
Div 5.35%
Dividend 5.35%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.75
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.5%
5Y Div CAGR
38.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
3.9B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.75 | -3.8% | 0.0% | 5.7% |
| 2024 | $0.78 | -37.6% | 1.1% | 8.9% |
| 2023 | $1.25 | +150.0% | 0.7% | 10.8% |
| 2022 | $0.50 | +400.0% | 1.0% | 5.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsF Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ford Motor Company (F) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ford Motor Company (F) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 24 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $15, implying +5.1% from the current price of $14. The bear case scenario is $3 and the bull case is $6.
02What is the F stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for F is $15 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $17 (+21.1% from today), and the low-end target is $13 (-8.8%). The base case model target is $5.
03Is Ford Motor Company (F) stock overvalued in 2026?
F trades at 8.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ford Motor Company (F) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for F in 2026 are: (1) Dividend sustainability — Ford's dividend viability is under scrutiny due to shifting market dynamics, strategic realignments, and financial pressures. (2) Profit credibility — The market is skeptical about Ford's ability to convert solid demand into credible 2026 earnings, requiring operational proof. (3) EV strategy execution — Investors are shifting focus from EV narratives to tangible operating performance, posing a challenge for Ford's EV strategy. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ford Motor Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates F will report consensus revenue of $193.7B (+2.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.08 (+94.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $198.3B in revenue.
06When does Ford Motor Company (F) report its next earnings?
Ford Motor Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $0.35 and revenue of $48.7B. Over recent quarters, F has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Ford Motor Company generate?
Ford Motor Company (F) generated $11.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.3%. F returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.4% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).