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Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited (FIHL) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited (FIHL)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$18.60
→
Intrinsic$37.17
+100%
$26.12$37.17$58.14
Market implies 6% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests FIHL could have 100% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $19, the market prices in only 6% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $26 → Bull $58. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$45$49$52$56
10%$32$35$37$40
12%$25$27$29$31
14%$21$22$24$25

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($58) offers 213% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (6%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($26) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Net Income Projection

Year 1$141.63M
Year 2$177.03M
Year 3$221.29M
Year 4$276.61M
Year 5$345.76M
Terminal$5.09B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Net Income$113.30MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses Net Income (FCF not meaningful for insurers). See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is FIHL stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

FIHL trades at $18.60 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $31.23, implying +62% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of FIHL's future cash flows. The bear case ($21.36) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is FIHL's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $113M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-294M net debt and dividing by 0.12B shares: Bear $21.36 | Base $31.23 | Bull $45.76. Current price $18.60 implies +62% to base case.

How is FIHL's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($3.32B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.