Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)
Valuation Overview•Is Firefly Aerospace Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Fragile underlying quality score of 36/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside with steady expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
FLY struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($484M) and minimal debt risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-153.5%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $80.9M | +163.0% | — | — | — | |
| EBITDA | -$95.7M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$96.5M | -29.1% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.61 | -161.0% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$78.9M | -24.9% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 21.7% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| Operating Margin | -153.5% | -245.8% | -245.8% | -245.8% |
| Net Margin | -181.1% | -270.7% | -270.7% | -270.7% |
| FCF Margin | -139.3% | -257.0% | -257.0% | -257.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.50 | $-0.46 | +8.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.48 | $-0.38 | +20.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.41 | $-0.33 | +19.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.42 | $-5.30 | -1161.9% |
Total return is -48.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -73.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +30.3% | +21.0% | — |
| 1Y | -48.7% | -73.7% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -20.0% | -39.3% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -12.5% | -24.9% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -6.5% | -20.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) valuation, health, and returns.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. overvalued (implying -36.6% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $19.62)
Firefly Aerospace Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $19.62 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $42.71 (implying +38.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 36/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 3.8 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -26.2%.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. pays a 0.2% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 1 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +163.0% 1Y revenue growth and -161.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 8 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +38.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Firefly Aerospace Inc. include: -72.2% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (3.10x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 3.10x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.