MODEL VERDICT
FMC Corporation (FMC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $14.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $14.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $17.45 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $26.49 | +78.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $22.42 | +51.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $37.52 | +153.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $34.83 | +135.0% | 100% | 46 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.94 | 20.38 | 6.00 | 27.73 | 7.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.05 | 19.48 | 16.49 | 21.90 | 2.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.32 | 12.81 | 10.19 | 13.99 | 1.51 |
| P/FCF | 24.99 | 25.85 | 10.09 | 35.93 | 10.50 |
| P/FFO | 14.68 | 16.64 | 5.04 | 21.12 | 5.94 |
| P/AFFO | 16.68 | 19.26 | 5.51 | 23.32 | 6.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.33 | 4.51 | 0.83 | 5.14 | 1.91 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.19 | 2.73 | 0.50 | 3.23 | 0.98 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates FMC's fair value at $34.83 vs the current price of $14.82, implying +135.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 46/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $34.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.44 (P10) to $34.03 (P90), with a median of $28.45.
FMC's current P/E of -0.8x compares to the industry median of 24.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -103.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.9x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
42 analysts cover FMC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $15.58 (range: $13.00 — $20.00), implying +5.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (21), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 46/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FMC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.