MODEL VERDICT
Finance Of America Companies Inc. (FOA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 50 industry peers | $13.84 | -37.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 53 industry peers | $19.67 | -10.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 51 bank peers | $6.60 | -70.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $14.38 | -34.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 50 analyst estimates | $35.28 | +60.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.91 | -27.8% | 100% | 79 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $18 | $20 | $23 | $25 | $28 |
| Conservative (5%) | $19 | $21 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Base Case (-45.1%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $14 | $15 |
| Bull Case (-61%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.76 | 4.23 | 1.20 | 23.83 | 12.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 258.32 | 52.92 | 37.01 | 685.04 | 369.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 145.57 | 42.36 | 35.63 | 358.73 | 184.63 |
| P/FFO | 5.68 | 4.40 | 0.56 | 12.09 | 5.87 |
| P/TBV | 8.15 | 6.94 | 0.61 | 19.02 | 7.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.78 | 0.54 | 0.33 | 2.09 | 0.65 |
| Div Yield | 0.46 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 1.27 | 0.70 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates FOA's fair value at $15.91 vs the current price of $22.03, implying -27.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.50 (P10) to $23.59 (P90), with a median of $17.58.
FOA's current P/E of 18.7x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (50 peers in the group). This represents a +59.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.8x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover FOA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $29.50 (range: $29.50 — $29.50), implying +33.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FOA trades at the 7000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FOA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.