MODEL VERDICT
Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $21.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $23.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $22.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $19.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $19.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $47.69 | +123.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $11.85 | -44.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $45.09 | +111.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $104.55 | +390.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $13.05 | -38.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $37.59 | +76.2% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 61.37 | 31.45 | 14.69 | 146.21 | 56.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.06 | 27.97 | 12.30 | 84.29 | 25.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.33 | 17.34 | 10.50 | 23.75 | 4.97 |
| P/FCF | 27.12 | 23.75 | 10.85 | 50.71 | 16.75 |
| P/FFO | 18.50 | 16.65 | 7.27 | 34.97 | 9.72 |
| P/TBV | 10.84 | 8.46 | 4.66 | 19.19 | 5.63 |
| P/AFFO | 29.43 | 26.00 | 8.43 | 52.43 | 18.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.85 | 3.89 | 2.14 | 5.57 | 1.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.32 | 1.63 | 0.31 | 2.38 | 0.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates FWRD's fair value at $37.59 vs the current price of $21.33, implying +76.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $37.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.73 (P10) to $38.37 (P90), with a median of $28.07.
FWRD's current P/E of -6.1x compares to the industry median of 44.5x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -113.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 61.4x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
21 analysts cover FWRD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $37.00 (range: $32.00 — $42.00), implying +73.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (11), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FWRD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.