MODEL VERDICT
GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $38.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $40.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $38.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $39.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $43.08 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $27.28 | -29.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $54.52 | +41.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $339.23 | +781.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $13.95 | -63.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $4.71 | -87.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $44.50 | +15.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $61.86 | +60.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $351.77 | +813.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $13.82 | -64.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $953.77 | +2377.3% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $42 | $42 | $52 | $73 | $94 |
| Conservative (7%) | $43 | $43 | $53 | $74 | $96 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $44 | $44 | $55 | $77 | $99 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $45 | $45 | $57 | $79 | $102 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 15508.29 | 56.29 | 51.37 | 77080.91 | 34420.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.87 | 13.93 | 12.14 | 66.93 | 21.66 |
| P/FCF | 74.57 | 54.59 | 33.94 | 142.30 | 43.71 |
| P/FFO | 23.34 | 13.79 | 3.16 | 77.78 | 27.63 |
| P/AFFO | 56.15 | 28.12 | 4.06 | 164.29 | 73.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.05 | 2.03 | 1.73 | 2.37 | 0.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.18 | 2.31 | 1.59 | 2.66 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates GFL's fair value at $953.77 vs the current price of $38.50, implying +2377.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $953.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $84.41 (P10) to $2683.35 (P90), with a median of $753.50.
GFL's current P/E of 5.2x compares to the industry median of 34.0x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -84.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover GFL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $56.67 (range: $50.00 — $63.00), implying +47.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GFL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.