MODEL VERDICT
Braze, Inc. (BRZE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $17.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $17.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $18.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $30.07 | Below threshold | -39.8% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $33.14 | Below threshold | -45.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 117 analyst estimates | $8.18 | -52.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 110 industry peers | $4.04 | -76.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 112 industry peers | $3.94 | -77.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 129 industry peers | $24.58 | +43.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 131 industry peers | $23.92 | +39.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 112 industry peers | $4.23 | -75.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.90 | -30.7% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 8.54 | 8.94 | 5.02 | 11.26 | 2.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.22 | 8.31 | 5.02 | 11.25 | 2.65 |
| P/S Ratio | 17.34 | 10.65 | 5.91 | 47.32 | 17.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates BRZE's fair value at $11.90 vs the current price of $17.16, implying -30.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.41 (P10) to $15.58 (P90), with a median of $11.06.
BRZE's current P/E of -16.8x compares to the industry median of 28.9x (72 peers in the group). This represents a -158.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
25 analysts cover BRZE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $42.00 (range: $30.00 — $50.00), implying +144.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (24), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BRZE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.