MODEL VERDICT
Procore Technologies, Inc. (PCOR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $59.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $55.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $55.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $52.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $47.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $39.97 | -32.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $30.60 | -48.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $33.53 | -43.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $53.51 | -9.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $41.07 | -30.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $30.78 | -48.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $100.56 | +69.5% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 375.10 | 135.73 | 50.81 | 1178.12 | 540.17 |
| P/TBV | 21.82 | 21.86 | 18.09 | 25.56 | 3.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.10 | 8.58 | 5.77 | 9.01 | 1.32 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.59 | 9.59 | 8.26 | 20.82 | 5.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates PCOR's fair value at $100.56 vs the current price of $59.32, implying +69.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $100.56 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.05 (P10) to $237.08 (P90), with a median of $104.42.
PCOR's current P/E of -88.5x compares to the industry median of 35.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -350.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover PCOR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $67.67 (range: $55.00 — $80.00), implying +14.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PCOR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.