GeoPark Limited (GPRK)
Valuation Overview•Is GeoPark Limited Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 46/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
GPRK demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins (highlighted by a massive 20.4% ROIC). This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-22.3% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 26.3% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $110.3M | -25.5% | -22.3% | +4.6% | +8.9% | |
| EBITDA | $46.7M | — | -19.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $31.1M | -48.4% | -39.5% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.60 | -47.0% | -36.5% | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $20.0M | -129.9% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 44.3% | 51.4% | 53.4% | 49.0% |
| Operating Margin | 26.3% | 36.7% | 35.6% | 23.5% |
| Net Margin | 10.3% | 13.1% | 13.9% | -0.1% |
| FCF Margin | -31.1% | 12.9% | 16.0% | 17.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.23 | $0.36 | +56.5% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.01 | $0.59 | +8480.7% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.01 | $0.60 | +6120.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.01 | $0.59 | +8480.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.31 | $0.42 | +35.5% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.15 | $0.27 | +80.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.46 | $0.34 | -26.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.73 | $0.30 | -58.9% |
Total return is +39.0% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +14.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +39.8% | +30.5% | — |
| 1Y | +39.0% | +14.0% | +3.1% |
| 3YCAGR | +3.3% | -15.7% | +13.1% |
| 5YCAGR | -1.9% | -14.6% | +15.8% |
| 10YCAGR | +14.9% | +1.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about GeoPark Limited (GPRK) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, GeoPark Limited appears Limited: Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
GeoPark Limited has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $19.88 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $11.50 (implying +13.4% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
GeoPark Limited displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 46/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.8 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 20.4%.
GeoPark Limited pays a 4.6% dividend yield, covered by a 49% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
GeoPark Limited's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -25.5% 1Y revenue growth and -47.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -22.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 9 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a 6-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +13.4% change from current levels.
Investment risks for GeoPark Limited include: -20.1% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.11x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.