MODEL VERDICT
Goosehead Insurance, Inc (GSHD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $43.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $48.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $43.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $41.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $40.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $21.59 | -50.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $32.76 | -24.7% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $355.75 | +717.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $21.58 | -50.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $49.88 | +14.6% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $40.61 | -6.7% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $124.15 | +185.3% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 39× | 42× (Current) | 45× | 48× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $40 | $43 | $46 | $50 | $53 |
| Conservative (10%) | $41 | $45 | $48 | $51 | $55 |
| Base Case (15.3%) | $43 | $47 | $50 | $54 | $58 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $45 | $49 | $53 | $56 | $60 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 332.00 | 204.86 | 66.25 | 1144.67 | 389.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 108.50 | 77.76 | 41.86 | 321.95 | 97.57 |
| EV/EBITDA | 91.86 | 58.28 | 36.45 | 256.44 | 76.36 |
| P/FCF | 72.54 | 49.49 | 31.93 | 160.66 | 52.81 |
| P/FFO | 129.23 | 99.24 | 71.77 | 257.35 | 66.42 |
| P/AFFO | 300.76 | 101.64 | 83.95 | 795.79 | 311.04 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.13 | 8.81 | 3.57 | 19.60 | 5.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates GSHD's fair value at $124.15 vs the current price of $43.52, implying +185.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $124.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $64.84 (P10) to $235.95 (P90), with a median of $135.01.
GSHD's current P/E of 41.8x compares to the industry median of 20.8x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +101.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 332.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
18 analysts cover GSHD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $67.14 (range: $52.00 — $93.00), implying +54.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GSHD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 66750.0% to approximately $334. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.