MODEL VERDICT
Health Catalyst, Inc. (HCAT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 25 analyst estimates | $6.15 | +184.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 33 industry peers | $9.59 | +344.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 33 industry peers | $10.68 | +394.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.28 | +237.0% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 11.19 | 6.34 | 3.79 | 24.82 | 9.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.84 | 2.33 | 1.17 | 6.23 | 1.96 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.39 | 3.14 | 1.39 | 9.11 | 3.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates HCAT's fair value at $7.28 vs the current price of $2.16, implying +237.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.86 (P10) to $9.88 (P90), with a median of $7.81.
HCAT's current P/E of -1.9x compares to the industry median of 34.1x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -105.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover HCAT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $4.25 (range: $3.00 — $5.00), implying +96.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HCAT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.