MODEL VERDICT
Teladoc Health, Inc. (TDOC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $5.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $5.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $5.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $5.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $3.46 | -46.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $35.19 | +444.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $34.57 | +435.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $47.02 | +627.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $45.28 | +600.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $35.53 | +450.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.81 | +562.7% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 74.17 | 20.20 | 4.32 | 317.09 | 122.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.87 | 1.14 | 0.89 | 5.93 | 1.82 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.51 | 1.59 | 0.49 | 16.54 | 6.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates TDOC's fair value at $42.81 vs the current price of $6.46, implying +562.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.39 (P10) to $72.13 (P90), with a median of $37.33.
TDOC's current P/E of -5.7x compares to the industry median of 36.0x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -115.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
42 analysts cover TDOC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $7.58 (range: $6.00 — $11.00), implying +17.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (28), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TDOC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.