MODEL VERDICT
Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Innoviva, Inc. (INVA)
Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) — Relative ValuationPeer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Innoviva, Inc. (INVA)
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $22.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $23.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $22.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $21.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $19.58 | Pending | +10.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $50.33 | +119.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $9.85 | -57.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $71.95 | +213.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $61.63 | +168.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $54.31 | +136.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $62.72 | +173.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $36.08 | +57.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $53.61 | +133.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $49.90 | +117.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $87.60 | +281.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $67.01 | +191.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.99 | +91.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $14 | $17 | $24 | $31 | $38 |
| Conservative (7%) | $14 | $18 | $25 | $32 | $39 |
| Base Case (10.3%) | $15 | $18 | $25 | $33 | $40 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $15 | $19 | $26 | $34 | $41 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.74 | 6.13 | 5.59 | 48.19 | 15.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.39 | 6.92 | 3.92 | 24.05 | 7.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.64 | 6.08 | 3.92 | 12.15 | 3.02 |
| P/FCF | 6.70 | 6.26 | 4.49 | 9.91 | 2.01 |
| P/FFO | 9.90 | 6.37 | 5.44 | 26.11 | 8.07 |
| P/TBV | 3.18 | 3.09 | 1.74 | 4.69 | 1.07 |
| P/AFFO | 9.94 | 6.39 | 5.46 | 26.26 | 8.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.53 | 2.23 | 1.44 | 4.69 | 1.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.34 | 4.15 | 3.59 | 6.15 | 0.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates INVA's fair value at $43.99 vs the current price of $22.96, implying +91.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.78 (P10) to $55.42 (P90), with a median of $43.86.
INVA's current P/E of 7.0x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -68.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover INVA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.50 (range: $17.00 — $46.00), implying +41.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that INVA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (57.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6090.0% to approximately $37. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.