HUTCHMED (China) Limited (HCM)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
Popular:
HCM Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $-361M | $101M | $38M | $262M | $256M | $285M | $285M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-2.15 | $0.60 | $0.22 | $1.49 | $1.46 | $1.61 | $1.61 |
| YoY Growth | — | — | -62.6% | +593.3% | -2.0% | +11.1% | +0.1% |
| Net Margin | -84.6% | 12.0% | 6.0% | 43.4% | 41.9% | 47.7% | 46.6% |
USD · HCM · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $630M | $602M | $612M | $598M | $612M |
| Net Income | $38M | $262M | $256M | $285M | $285M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.22 | $1.49 | $1.46 | $1.61 | $1.61 |
| Free Cash Flow | $-17M | $242M | $240M | $229M | $229M |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying HCM stock.
HUTCHMED (China) Limited's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $1.49. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 29/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for HUTCHMED (China) Limited: Bear case $N/A, Base case $89, and Bull case $10. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
HUTCHMED (China) Limited's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 0.0%, reaching approximately $0.6B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 29/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Currently expanding margins support higher forecast reliability. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
HUTCHMED (China) Limited's forward operating margin is estimated at 1.1% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "expanding". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($N/A) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 367.0% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 15% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.