MODEL VERDICT
HUTCHMED (China) Limited (HCM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $13.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $15.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $15.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $15.24 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $4.43 | -66.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $3.74 | -71.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $14.68 | +10.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $14.54 | +9.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $3.67 | -72.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.99 | -47.4% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 50× | 55× | 60× (Current) | 65× | 70× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $11 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| Conservative (7%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $12 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 6.26 | 5.37 | 3.27 | 10.78 | 2.79 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.21 | 5.35 | 3.26 | 10.67 | 2.76 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.35 | 14.33 | 3.76 | 19.61 | 6.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates HCM's fair value at $6.99 vs the current price of $13.30, implying -47.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.45 (P10) to $7.68 (P90), with a median of $6.53.
HCM's current P/E of 60.5x compares to the industry median of 17.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +255.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
10 analysts cover HCM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.50 (range: $17.50 — $17.50), implying +31.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HCM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.