MODEL VERDICT
Hagerty, Inc. (HGTY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $4.59 | -55.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $4.67 | -54.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $1.05 | -89.8% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $4.07 | -60.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $4.53 | -56.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $4.10 | -60.3% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $9.73 | -5.9% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $45.29 | +338.0% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.08 | +384.4% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (26%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Conservative (42%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Base Case (65.3%) | $15 | $16 | $17 | $18 | $20 |
| Bull Case (88%) | $17 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 890.11 | 360.38 | 36.32 | 2803.33 | 1284.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 434.65 | 238.79 | 36.93 | 1028.25 | 523.88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 100.40 | 72.06 | 3.84 | 253.64 | 113.49 |
| P/FCF | 294.32 | 61.47 | 21.94 | 1032.41 | 493.36 |
| P/FFO | 105.32 | 110.94 | 27.98 | 171.42 | 71.61 |
| P/TBV | 31.92 | 25.50 | 10.20 | 76.25 | 27.18 |
| P/AFFO | 230.81 | 183.34 | 32.81 | 523.76 | 218.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 16.63 | 17.24 | 6.53 | 30.78 | 10.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.66 | 8.10 | 2.87 | 13.63 | 4.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates HGTY's fair value at $50.08 vs the current price of $10.34, implying +384.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.84 (P10) to $143.61 (P90), with a median of $61.16.
HGTY's current P/E of 27.9x compares to the industry median of 12.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +125.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 890.1x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover HGTY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $14.33 (range: $13.00 — $15.00), implying +38.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 8.9% is 8.1 percentage points above the 4-year average (0.8%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$29. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HGTY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (0.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 18270.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.